Key points
- A lasting or difficult-to-reverse commitment
- Two to four genuinely distinct options
- Shared and understandable criteria
- A record of the choice and its limits
The minimum components of a decision
A robust decision file starts with the exact decision to be made: who decides, by what date, over which horizon and within which constraints. It then separates what is established from what is assumed.
| Component | Question | Expected evidence |
|---|---|---|
| Evidence | What do we know? | Source, date and scope |
| Assumptions | What are we assuming? | Rationale, owner and sensitivity |
| Options | What are we choosing between? | Coherent and distinct scenarios |
| Criteria | How do we compare them? | Definition, scale and any weighting |
| Trade-off | Why this choice? | Compromises, risks and conditions |
Decide under uncertainty
The goal is not to eliminate uncertainty. It is to show where uncertainty lies and which information could reverse the preference between two options.
A sensitivity analysis, a switching threshold or a limited experiment can be more useful than a score presented with artificial precision.
- Ranges instead of arbitrarily precise figures
- A credible downside scenario
- Thresholds that change the ranking
- Information to collect before committing
The deliverable is a defensible decision, not an automatic one
The summary should state which option is proposed, why, under which conditions and with which risks. It should also retain the rejected options and the reasons for rejecting them.
Innovatio can structure the evidence, run deterministic calculations and assist the summary. Choosing the criteria, accepting the risks and making the final decision remain human responsibilities.