Start from scenarios that have already been examined
This page follows the methodological work of building and comparing options. The scenarios already share a horizon, documented assumptions and an assessment of their risks.
The trade-off is therefore not intended to produce more scenarios. It verifies which one can be committed with the resources actually available and which decisions are still needed before starting.
Test each option against commitment capacity
Scenario feasibility depends on skills, cash, management time and available partners. These constraints become explicit decision conditions.
- Budget available now
- Skills and steering capacity
- Time to the first learning
- Critical external dependencies
- Amount that would be difficult to reverse
Choose a base, a fallback and an acceleration rule
The decision can select a central scenario as the base, retain a cautious scenario as the fallback and make the ambitious option conditional on commercial, financial or operational evidence.
This architecture avoids the false choice between inaction and maximum commitment. It turns uncertainty into successive decisions with an explicit cost, expected signal and owner.
| Role | Decision question | Expected output |
|---|---|---|
| Base scenario | What can we commit today? | Initial scope and resources |
| Fallback option | What if the critical assumption fails? | Reduce, postpone or stop |
| Acceleration | Which evidence allows a larger commitment? | Threshold, date and new decision |
| Review | Which event requires another assessment? | Signal and review owner |
Produce a commitment decision
The final note states the selected scenario, committed amount or capacity, accepted assumptions, fallback option and evidence required before acceleration. Innovatio workspaces prepare the trade-off; budgets, tasks and approvals remain in the organisation’s processes.
Workspaces relevant to this question
Each workspace answers a specific question and contributes to the same decision file. Combined information remains sourced and checked before the trade-off.
Frequently asked questions
Where can teams learn to build scenarios?
The dedicated methodological guide explains how to build and compare scenarios. This page focuses on choosing which one to commit to.
Must the choice between cautious and ambitious be final?
Not necessarily. A staged decision can make a limited initial commitment and authorize acceleration when predefined evidence is obtained.
How does the chosen scenario inform the budget?
The note prepares approval; validations, allocations and tasks then follow the organisation’s systems and responsibilities.