Decision support
Strategic decision support: method, tools and a defensible file
A six-stage method to frame a strategic decision, compare scenarios, state assumptions and document a defensible human trade-off.
Read the guide ↗Resources · method guides
Strategic decision guides
Written guides that take you from a strategic question to a defensible decision file: the overall method, practical situations and analytical tools, each with its method and its limits.
Starting point
The overall method
The pillar guide sets out the approach: question, options, criteria, scenarios and the final choice.
Practical guides
Preparing a real decision file
Decision file, scenarios, commercial economics, operational risks, financial trajectory, web network mapping and the use of AI: concrete situations, step by step.
Decision file
How to build a strategic decision file
Structure a strategic decision file around the question, evidence, assumptions, scenarios, recommendation, risks and trade-off record.
Read the guide ↗Scenarios
How to compare strategic scenarios without false precision
Build coherent scenarios, use shared criteria, test sensitive assumptions and document the trade-off without creating false precision.
Read the guide ↗Commercial economics
How to build a price-volume-cost scenario
Build and compare price-volume-cost scenarios using explicit volume, margin, variable cost, fixed cost, promotion and break-even assumptions.
Read the guide ↗Operations and risks
How to map flows, dependencies and risks
Map operating flows, dependencies, critical points and risks, then connect each exposure, control and owner to the strategic decision file.
Read the guide ↗Finance
How to build a three-to-five-year financial trajectory
Connect activity assumptions, P&L, working capital, cash, investment and financing in a readable three-to-five-year financial trajectory.
Read the guide ↗Web intelligence
PageRank and web ecosystem centrality: map without overinterpreting
Understand PageRank, betweenness, harmonic centrality and Louvain communities in a bounded web network, with the limits needed for a defensible reading.
Read the guide ↗AI and decisions
How to use AI for a sourced decision summary
Use AI to question and summarise a decision file while keeping sources, assumptions, missing evidence, limits and human responsibilities visible.
Read the guide ↗Method guides
Choosing the analytical tool
Portfolio and growth matrices, multi-criteria analysis, positioning, uncertainty, simulation, markets, location and media investment: what each tool reveals, and its limits.
Multi-criteria analysis
Build a multi-criteria decision matrix without false precision
Structure options, criteria, scales, weights and sensitivity tests to compare strategic choices without turning a score into an automated decision.
Read the guide ↗Portfolio
BCG matrix: calculate the axes before reading the quadrants
Calculate market growth and relative market share, expose missing evidence and use BCG quadrants as a diagnosis rather than an automated order.
Read the guide ↗Growth
Ansoff matrix: define newness before choosing a growth direction
Classify an option by existing or new products and markets, document boundary cases and turn the quadrant into assumptions to test.
Read the guide ↗Multi-factor portfolio
GE-McKinsey matrix: build the factors before plotting the businesses
Define market attractiveness and competitive strength, their factors, weights and directions, then test sensitivity before reading the nine boxes.
Read the guide ↗Strategic allocation
Portfolio prioritisation: choose the method, then make allocation explicit
Choose Ansoff, BCG, GE-McKinsey or multi-criteria analysis, then test priorities against budgets, capacity, dependencies and review conditions.
Read the guide ↗Portfolio
Directional Policy Matrix: combine market attractiveness and competitive strength
Build market-attractiveness and competitive-strength axes from weighted factors, then interpret the position without imposing universal thresholds.
Read the guide ↗Positioning
Perceptual map: make competitive positioning discussable
Select two interpretable dimensions, document where coordinates come from and use the map as a positioning hypothesis rather than causal evidence.
Read the guide ↗Uncertainty
Decision tree and EMV: calculate expected monetary value
Structure decisions, uncertain events, probabilities and payoffs, then calculate expected monetary value without treating it as a forecast.
Read the guide ↗Simulation
Monte Carlo simulation: turn assumptions into an outcome distribution
Define uncertain variables and distributions, simulate the model, then read means and percentiles without presenting the output as a forecast.
Read the guide ↗Markets
BDI, CDI and MOI: compare brand and category development
Calculate BDI and CDI by segment or region, then use the MOI ratio as a bounded investigation signal rather than automatic proof of potential.
Read the guide ↗Location
Trade area analysis with Reilly’s Law and the Huff model
Calculate a theoretical breaking point with Reilly and attraction probabilities with Huff, then test the model against field evidence.
Read the guide ↗Media investment
Share of Voice vs Share of Market: calculate SOV, SOM, ESOV and MSAR
Calculate share of voice, share of market, ESOV and MSAR with consistent denominators, then interpret the gap without turning it into a causal forecast.
Read the guide ↗Your decision