Compare markets before costing the launch
The first decision is not yet a budget. It is to identify which markets or segments deserve a complete launch scenario. The compared units must share a consistent horizon, offer and definitions.
Grid structures markets, products, segments, criteria, weights and portfolio options. The ranking remains a basis for discussion: sources, weightings and capability gaps stay visible.
| Dimension | Question to document | Expected element |
|---|---|---|
| Attractiveness | Does the market justify the effort? | Size, momentum, access and sources |
| Competitive strength | Can the offer defend a position? | Capabilities, references, channels and gaps |
| Economic potential | Can a credible scenario create margin? | Net price, cost, volume and timing |
| Uncertainty | What information could reverse the choice? | Assumption, signal, owner and review date |
Turn the priority into launch assumptions
A priority market is not yet an investment decision. Each option is translated into comparable commercial assumptions: target segment, net price, volume, channel, variable cost, launch-specific fixed cost, capacity and ramp-up time.
Mix compares these assumptions without turning volume into an automatic forecast. Volume remains a scenario input to justify, test and revise.
| Assumption | Control question | Comparability condition |
|---|---|---|
| Net price | What remains after discounts and promotions? | Same definition and period |
| Volume | What quantity does the scenario assume is sellable? | Explicit source, range and capacity |
| Variable cost | Which cost truly changes with each unit? | No double counting |
| Launch fixed costs | Which expenses belong to the option? | Same scope and timing |
Calculate profitability conditions, not a promise
Unit contribution is net unit price less unit variable cost. Total contribution multiplies that margin by volume. The scenario result then subtracts launch-specific fixed costs.
When unit contribution is positive, break-even units equal specific fixed costs divided by unit contribution, rounded up to a whole unit. Calc keeps formulas and inputs auditable within the scope covered by its catalog.
| Measure | Formula | Decision reading |
|---|---|---|
| Unit contribution | Net unit price − unit variable cost | Value created per unit before fixed costs |
| Contribution | Unit contribution × volume | Ability to cover fixed costs |
| Result | Contribution − specific fixed costs | Economic consequence under the assumptions |
| Break-even | Specific fixed costs ÷ positive unit contribution | Minimum volume for a zero result |
Compare several levels of commitment
The same market option may be tested through a bounded pilot, a staged rollout or a fuller launch. The retained scenario depends on value, capacity, timing, reversibility and the information still missing.
Plot organises analyses and synthesis within its scope. The comparison preserves the assumptions of each scenario and the conditions that could reverse the trade-off.
| Level | Decision sought | Condition to set |
|---|---|---|
| Bounded pilot | Buy decisive information | Question, spending cap and stop rule |
| Staged rollout | Extend after validation | Milestone, capacity and progression threshold |
| Full launch | Commit more resources | Target profitability, risks and fallback |
Build the file leadership can arbitrate
Atlas retains the elements explicitly attached to the file, its assumptions, versions and decision. Leadership can retrieve the selected market, rejected options, calculations, uncertainties and conditions for reopening the choice.
The journey describes a decision discipline across specialist workspaces. Each result remains sourced and checked before being brought into the file.
- Markets and segments actually compared
- Criteria, weightings and sources
- Price, volume, cost and margin scenarios
- Break-even and sensitive assumptions
- Decision, commitments and review conditions
Workspaces relevant to this question
Each workspace answers a specific question and contributes to the same decision file. Combined information remains sourced and checked before the trade-off.
Frequently asked questions
Does Grid automatically select the best market?
No. Grid structures options, criteria, weights and scenarios. The ranking informs a human trade-off.
Does Mix forecast launch volume?
No. Mix compares volumes entered as assumptions. Demand, commercial capacity and ramp-up require separate evidence.
Does Calc cover every calculation in the file?
Calc documents and runs formulas included in its catalog. Calculations outside that catalog remain explicit in their originating workspace.
How are the results brought together?
Each workspace retains its role. Useful information is attached to the file, sourced and checked before the trade-off.